Consumer prices for wheat-based products were up substantially in compared to , as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Price levels of a variety of wheat products were up more than 10 percent from , outpacing the rate of inflation in the broader all food category, which was up 9.9 percent, more than double the average increase of the previous decade. The average price level across the cereals and bakery products category was up 13 percent in , well above the previous years increase (2.3 percent) and more than three times as large as any year in the past decade. Prices for flour and prepared flour mixes were nearly 19 percent higher in , far exceeding the average from the previous decade (0.2 percent). Commodity prices for wheat were elevated in and , but the increase in prices for wheat-based consumer products did not fully appear until . Consumer price changes tend to lag price changes at the commodity level, partly based on the tendency of processors to purchase inputs well in advance. Rising input prices for non-wheat ingredientssuch as eggs and butter, which tend to feature prominently in wheat food productsin addition to elevated labor and fuel expenses have all contributed to wheat food price inflation in . This chart is drawn from the USDA, Economic Research Service Wheat Outlook, February .
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hasnt been a good year for food inflation. From eggs to oranges, many kitchen basics have skyrocketed in price over the past few months. Unfortunately, it seems as if another popular pantry staple will be hit hard in : flour.
Here is everything you need to know about the potential flour shortage, including why its happening, when you can expect it, how much prices may increase, and my own personal tips as a food writer and bread baker for saving your precious dough.
In the United States, we grow three main varieties of wheat: hard red winter, hard red spring and soft red wheats. The first two classes are grown in the South and Central states, which have experienced extreme drought conditions over the past year, especially Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas.
Because of this widespread drought, a whopping 75% of the countrys wheat crops are currently being grown in drought conditions, according to the USDA. This means that huge portions of American wheat crops are dying, and those that are surviving the heat are often inedible or low-quality. Indeed, this year marks a record low in wheat production for the United States. And when any product is this short in supply with sustained demand, prices tend to skyrocket.
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Given the current agricultural cycles from winter and early spring, experts are predicting that flour prices will rise in . Its worth noting that there is still a chance that the third varietal of wheatsoft red wheatwill pull through and lessen the blow. Currently, its too early to call, but as of April 11, nearly all major soft red winter wheat areas were drought-free, according to Food Business News. While this cant save flour prices from increasing entirely, it may be able to lessen the intensity of a retail price hike.
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Again, experts arent quite sure yet. However, one potential predictor of future price increases is the war in Ukraine. When Russia invaded the breadbasket country in late February this year, flour prices increased by about 55% in early March, according to AP News. While this price increase was due to Ukrainian farmers being unable to tend their fields, the retail impact of it may mirror that of a future drought-induced shortage.
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Now, as an avid bread baker, I have experienced the rising flour prices firsthand. Standard bags of flour that used to cost me just $4 are now ringing in at $7 or $8 (to be fair, I live in the Bay Area, one of Americas most expensive regions). Still, I consider myself a bit of a flour-purchasing experthere are some of the tricks I use to save money without sacrificing my precious baking.
Try to buy flour in bulk, instead of in smaller individual bags whenever possible. While the first purchase may be more expensive, it tends to be cheaper in the long run. Try your local supermarkets bulk section, or box stores that specialize in bulk quantities, like Costco or Sams Club.
Many bread bakers swear by purchasing flour online. Amazon offers 5-pound and 10-pound bags for half the price of other retailers. Additionally, you can buy flour wholesale, as a bakery would, to really rack up savings. Some solid providers are Ardent Mills and Webstaurant Store.
Finally, if youre buying flour in large quantities, you have to make sure it doesnt go to waste. Light degrades flour, so store it somewhere dark and coollike your refrigerator! Many professional bakers swear by freezing or at least refrigerating their flours to extend their shelf lives. This is especially important for whole wheat varieties, which go off quicker than all-purpose flours. Additionally, always use an air-tight storage container so that your flour doesnt go stale.
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